Economic Projections June 2014

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

  Real GDP Inflation
2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 4.6
Global (PPP rates) 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.6        
                 
United States 1.9 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.9
China 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.4
Japan 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.4 2.1 2.1 1.5
United Kingdom 1.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Eurozone -0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5
France 0.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5
Germany 0.5 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.7
Greece -3.9 0.3 2.1 3.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 1.3
Ireland -0.3 1.7 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.5
Italy -1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.4
Netherlands -0.8 0.2 1.5 2.0 2.6 0.8 1.2 1.4
Portugal -1.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.5
Spain -1.2 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.0
Poland 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 1.2 1.4 2.5 2.5
Russia 1.3 0.5 1.5 2.5 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.0
Turkey 4.0 2.3 3.8 4.5 7.5 7.9 6.6 4.8
Australia 2.4 2.6 2.2 3.1 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.7
India 4.6 5.3 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.6 6.1 6.0
Indonesia 5.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 5.1
South Korea 3.0 3.6 4.1 3.8 1.2 2.3 3.0 2.9
Argentina 5.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 10.6 11.9 13.3 9.7
Brazil 2.3 1.8 2.5 4.0 6.2 6.6 5.7 4.8
Canada 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.1
Mexico 1.3 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
South Africa 1.9 2.0 2.5 3.8 5.8 6.1 5.5 4.8
Saudi Arabia 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Argentinian GDP projections are based on the reference year 1993. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25%(December 2008) QE tapering
to continue
during 2014
June 17-18
European Central Bank 0.25%(November 2013) Possible easing
soon but
exact form unclear
June 5
Bank of England 0.5%(March 2009) On hold June 5

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

PwC Global Consumer Index - June 2014

Our index ticks up slightly to 3.5% this month, led by stronger levels of industrial production and business confidence. US and Eurozone PMIs are continuing their upward trend and equity markets remain buoyant. There are risks on the horizon: weakening economic outlook and falling industrial production in key economies such as China could weigh on future consumption growth.

The GCI is a monthly updated index providing an early steer on consumer spending and growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies. For more information, please visit pwc.co.uk/globalconsumerindex