Economic Projections July 2014

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

  Real GDP Inflation
2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 4.6
Global (PPP rates) 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.6        
                 
United States 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.9
China 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.4
Japan 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.4 2.1 2.1 1.5
United Kingdom 1.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Eurozone -0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5
France 0.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5
Germany 0.5 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.7
Greece -3.9 0.3 2.1 3.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 1.3
Ireland -0.3 1.7 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 1.5
Italy -1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.4
Netherlands -0.8 0.2 1.5 2.0 2.6 0.8 1.2 1.4
Portugal -1.0 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.5
Spain -1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.0
Poland 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.6 2.2 2.5
Russia 1.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 6.7 5.8 5.5 5.0
Turkey 4.0 2.4 3.8 4.5 7.5 8.0 6.7 4.8
Australia 2.4 2.6 2.2 3.1 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.7
India 4.6 5.3 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.6 6.1 6.0
Indonesia 5.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 5.1
South Korea 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 1.3 2.3 3.0 2.9
Argentina 5.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 10.6 11.9 13.3 9.7
Brazil 2.3 1.8 2.5 4.0 6.2 6.6 5.7 4.8
Canada 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.1
Mexico 1.3 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
South Africa 1.9 1.8 2.5 3.8 5.8 6.1 5.5 4.8
Saudi Arabia 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Argentinian GDP projections are based on the reference year 1993. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25%(December 2008) QE tapering
to continue
during 2014
3 July
European Central Bank 0.15%(June 2014) On hold
following easing
in June
3 July
Bank of England 0.5%(March 2009) On hold
for now
10 July

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the "National and urban Consumer Price Index" (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

PwC Global Consumer Index - July 2014

Global consumer spending continues to maintain its momentum, growing at 3.6% this month. Industrial production in the G20 economies has picked up, and the improvement in consumer and business confidence continues to support consumption.

The GCI is a monthly updated index providing an early steer on consumer spending and growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies. For more information, please visit pwc.co.uk/globalconsumerindex