Global Economy Watch (GEW) archive

The Eurozone’s reliance on Germany for growth looks shaky

The Eurozone’s reliance on Germany for growth looks shaky, Eurozone growth is stuck in neutral. As a comparison, the US has grown by around 7%.


Global Economy Watch November 2014

Italy’s labour market is struggling but reforms are on the way. Implications if Italy reforms.


South Korea seeks to empower its female population

PwC’s Women in Work Index gives an overview of the level of economic empowerment of women in OECD countries


Where will the top goods trade routes be in 2030?

Where will the top goods trade routes be in 2030? Our analysis of IMF numbers shows that, since 1980, the volume of global trade has increased...


When it comes to giving an early steer on consumer spending trends, our GCI passes the test

Early steer on consumer spending trends, our GCI passes the test. Consumer spending is the biggest component of the global economy and key driver...


Global Economy Watch October 2014

The likely end of QE is the first step in the Fed’s return to normal monetary policy, this will involve raising interest rates...


The stereotype of boring central banks has vanished

Central banks have evolved since the financial crisis they have developed innovative policy responses after the ‘Great Panic’ of 2008.


Global Economy Watch September 2014

The unlikely champions: Eurozone periphery grows faster than the core.


The outlook is relatively bright for the US with interest rate rises expected later next year

Concerns were raised about the world’s largest economy after a disappointing first quarter in which US GDP shrank by 0.5% over the quarter .


Global Economy Watch: August 2014

Investment by households, businesses and governments in the G7 dropped by around 15% in real terms between 2007 and 2009.


Which cities hold the key to unleashing growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?

As labour costs in Asia starts to increase and pressure remains to keep prices competitive, CEOs are increasingly recognising the untapped potential.


Will the Modi Budget jump start India’s economy?

Measures to improve infrastructure, reform the tax system and allow more foreign investment in the defence and insurance sectors.


Global Economy Watch – July 2014

Economic update: US employment figures back to former glory while Germany continues to fly solo


ECB action – what does it all mean?

Inflation has been dropping in the Eurozone for some time now. The latest estimate is for Eurozone annual inflation of 0.5% in May, down from 0.7% in April.


Growing pains: How fast is too fast for financialisation

One of the most important global economic trends over the past few decades has been the deepening of financial markets, or “financialisation”.


Global Economy Watch – June 2014

In the June edition of the Global Economy Watch we focus on Brazil and what hosting the World Cup might mean for its economy. On the pitch, our analysis suggests that Brazil has the best chances of winning the tournament, while England looks set to exit in the quarter finals.


Brazil: How can it capitalise off the pitch?

This month’s FIFA World Cup in Brazil will put the spotlight on a BRIC economy that has been going through a tough period since the financial crisis. Many commentators have suggested that this event, and the Olympics in two years’ time, might bring a boost to the economy. But are they right?


The PwC World Cup Index: what can the dismal science tell us about the beautiful game?

As the 2014 World Cup in Brazil draws closer, there is increasing interest in what makes a successful World Cup team. We have used economic techniques to test the relationship between key variables and historic World Cup performances.


Global Economy Watch: May 2014

PwC’s macroeconomic team present Economic projections for May, along with their views on the Eurozone recovery, inflation, and the indian elections


Focus on…China: Could downside risks derail China’s growth?

Could China’s credit boom fallout threaten its 7.5% growth target?


Economic update: swings and roundabouts UK budget won’t have a big macroeconomic impact

George Osborne presented his 2014 budget, but with a persistently high structural budget deficit, he was limited in what he could afford.


At a glance: Emerging markets: caught in a taper tantrum?

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s analysis of the global economic outlook.


At a glance: Beyond profit

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s analysis of the global economic outlook.


Focus on...Malaysia

An interview with PwC Malaysia on the prospects for the Malaysian economy.


Emerging markets: will they be stranded at low tide?

Emerging markets have been struggling as poor external positions and economic governance are becoming clearer.


Economic update: Recovery in the Eurozone is proceeding

The Eurozone recovery has reached most economies, but stark differences in performance remain.


Inequality – is the Gini out of the bottle?

Inequality in advanced economies is rising, the gains from recovery are not being shared equally


Commodities: Risk of upward pressure on oil prices

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for commodities in 2014.


Which areas should businesses focus on in 2014?

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for businesses in 2014.


Predictions for the UK economy in 2014

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for the UK economy and beyond in 2014.


Beyond oil: Outlook for the Gulf economies

For the past decade the seven largest emerging market economies (the E7) have been monopolising the spotlight. However, we think the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries deserve more attention from global business than they are currently receiving.


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - November 2013

Many emerging economies are losing momentum, challenging the growth plans of international businesses. Using our ‘Conditions for Growth’ framework we’ve identified 4 economies which could provide businesses with a buffer against a slowdown.


Economic growth in Europe, can you CEE it?

The majority of CEE countries are small, relatively open and heavily dependent on exports for growth, notably to other EU countries. This makes them highly sensitive to developments in advanced economies.


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - October 2013

In October, policymakers from around the world will gather in Washington DC to take stock of global economic prospects. For the first time since 2010 the prognosis for a sustained recovery in the advanced economies is expected to be positive.


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - August 2013

This edition of Global Economy Watch (GEW) looks at the improving economic conditions in the US, and remarks made by Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, have stoked expectations that the monthly $85bn Quantitative Easing (QE) purchase of assets could be tapered by the end of 2013.


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - July 2013

This edition of Global Economy Watch (GEW) looks at the improving economic conditions in the US, and remarks made by Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, have stoked expectations that the monthly $85bn Quantitative Easing (QE) purchase of assets could be tapered by the end of 2013.


Global economy watch - June 2013

The first three months of the year marked the sixth consecutive quarter of Eurozone contraction. The slowdown has now spread to the core of the bloc, with France entering recession. By contrast, the US recovery has consistently outpaced that of the Eurozone with output around 3% higher than its 2007 peak. One area that could contribute to business growth is the booming trade in international services.


Global economy watch - May 2013

Economies around the world are recovering at different speeds. We are now seeing the rise of a ‘three speed’ economy, with the Eurozone in the slow lane, the US in the middle lane, and the emerging markets in the fast lane. This month, we’ve interviewed the former President of Cyprus, George Vassiliou; in his opinion the Eurozone needs to integrate more to overcome its debt crisis. Finally, we have focused on equity markets which, in the case of the UK and the US, are back up to their pre-crisis levels.


Status update on the global economy

Six months ago we pointed out the rise of a two speed economy with the emerging economies growing faster than the advanced. The US has gradually broken away from the pack, with growth picking up back towards trend. In this section we have taken stock of the world economy within a new three speed economy framework.


Equity markets have hit new post crisis highs

Since the beginning of the year developed markets have outperformed emerging markets primarily due to more direct exposure to easing, as well as some short term concerns over growth. Figure 4 shows the effect of Japan’s new monetary regime1 on the Nikkei, which has posted a return of 27% (or around 13% in dollar adjusted terms) since the start of January.