Global Economy Watch (GEW) archive

The PwC World Cup Index: what can the dismal science tell us about the beautiful game?

As the 2014 World Cup in Brazil draws closer, there is increasing interest in what makes a successful World Cup team. We have used economic techniques to test the relationship between key variables and historic World Cup performances.

[6/2/14]


Brazil: How can it capitalise off the pitch?

This month’s FIFA World Cup in Brazil will put the spotlight on a BRIC economy that has been going through a tough period since the financial crisis. Many commentators have suggested that this event, and the Olympics in two years’ time, might bring a boost to the economy. But are they right?

[6/2/14]


Global Economy Watch – June 2014

In the June edition of the Global Economy Watch we focus on Brazil and what hosting the World Cup might mean for its economy. On the pitch, our analysis suggests that Brazil has the best chances of winning the tournament, while England looks set to exit in the quarter finals.

[6/2/14]


Economic Projections June 2014

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

[6/2/14]


Global Economy Watch: May 2014

PwC’s macroeconomic team present Economic projections for May, along with their views on the Eurozone recovery, inflation, and the indian elections

[5/1/14]


Economic update: swings and roundabouts UK budget won’t have a big macroeconomic impact

George Osborne presented his 2014 budget, but with a persistently high structural budget deficit, he was limited in what he could afford.

[3/27/14]


Focus on…China: Could downside risks derail China’s growth?

Could China’s credit boom fallout threaten its 7.5% growth target?

[3/27/14]


Focus on...Malaysia

An interview with PwC Malaysia on the prospects for the Malaysian economy.

[2/28/14]


Economic update: Recovery in the Eurozone is proceeding

The Eurozone recovery has reached most economies, but stark differences in performance remain.

[2/28/14]


Inequality – is the Gini out of the bottle?

Inequality in advanced economies is rising, the gains from recovery are not being shared equally

[2/28/14]


At a glance: Emerging markets: caught in a taper tantrum?

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s analysis of the global economic outlook.

[2/28/14]


At a glance: Beyond profit

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s analysis of the global economic outlook.

[2/28/14]


Emerging markets: will they be stranded at low tide?

Emerging markets have been struggling as poor external positions and economic governance are becoming clearer.

[2/28/14]


Which areas should businesses focus on in 2014?

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for businesses in 2014.

[12/20/13]


Commodities: Risk of upward pressure on oil prices

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for commodities in 2014.

[12/20/13]


Predictions for the UK economy in 2014

PwC’s macroeconomics team’s predictions for the UK economy and beyond in 2014.

[12/20/13]


Beyond oil: Outlook for the Gulf economies

For the past decade the seven largest emerging market economies (the E7) have been monopolising the spotlight. However, we think the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries deserve more attention from global business than they are currently receiving.

[12/2/13]


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - November 2013

Many emerging economies are losing momentum, challenging the growth plans of international businesses. Using our ‘Conditions for Growth’ framework we’ve identified 4 economies which could provide businesses with a buffer against a slowdown.

[11/7/13]


Economic growth in Europe, can you CEE it?

The majority of CEE countries are small, relatively open and heavily dependent on exports for growth, notably to other EU countries. This makes them highly sensitive to developments in advanced economies.

[10/31/13]


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - October 2013

In October, policymakers from around the world will gather in Washington DC to take stock of global economic prospects. For the first time since 2010 the prognosis for a sustained recovery in the advanced economies is expected to be positive.

[10/4/13]


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - August 2013

This edition of Global Economy Watch (GEW) looks at the improving economic conditions in the US, and remarks made by Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, have stoked expectations that the monthly $85bn Quantitative Easing (QE) purchase of assets could be tapered by the end of 2013.

[8/2/13]


Global Economy Watch (GEW) - July 2013

This edition of Global Economy Watch (GEW) looks at the improving economic conditions in the US, and remarks made by Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, have stoked expectations that the monthly $85bn Quantitative Easing (QE) purchase of assets could be tapered by the end of 2013.

[7/1/13]


Global economy watch - June 2013

The first three months of the year marked the sixth consecutive quarter of Eurozone contraction. The slowdown has now spread to the core of the bloc, with France entering recession. By contrast, the US recovery has consistently outpaced that of the Eurozone with output around 3% higher than its 2007 peak. One area that could contribute to business growth is the booming trade in international services.

[6/1/13]


Global economy watch - May 2013

Economies around the world are recovering at different speeds. We are now seeing the rise of a ‘three speed’ economy, with the Eurozone in the slow lane, the US in the middle lane, and the emerging markets in the fast lane. This month, we’ve interviewed the former President of Cyprus, George Vassiliou; in his opinion the Eurozone needs to integrate more to overcome its debt crisis. Finally, we have focused on equity markets which, in the case of the UK and the US, are back up to their pre-crisis levels.

[5/1/13]


Equity markets have hit new post crisis highs

Since the beginning of the year developed markets have outperformed emerging markets primarily due to more direct exposure to easing, as well as some short term concerns over growth. Figure 4 shows the effect of Japan’s new monetary regime1 on the Nikkei, which has posted a return of 27% (or around 13% in dollar adjusted terms) since the start of January.

[4/24/13]


Interview with the former President of Cyprus

In this interview, the former President of Cyprus, George Vassiliou, Mr Vassiliou, gives his take on the latest events in Cyprus and points out what Europe and the Eurozone needs to do to overcome the current crisis. Finally he comments on the competitive threats advanced economies are increasingly facing from the emerging markets.

[4/24/13]


Status update on the global economy

Six months ago we pointed out the rise of a two speed economy with the emerging economies growing faster than the advanced. The US has gradually broken away from the pack, with growth picking up back towards trend. In this section we have taken stock of the world economy within a new three speed economy framework.

[4/24/13]


Global economy watch - April 2013

After a quiet start to 2013, the latest episode in the Eurozone crisis in Cyprus provided a reminder of how fast events can unfold. The bailout negotiations revived fears of a disorderly bankruptcy and Eurozone exit.

[4/2/13]


The return of the Eurozone crisis

Last month Cyprus stood on the brink of becoming the first country to leave the bloc before a last-minute deal saved the nation’s banking sector and the government from bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Italian elections produced a stalemate, leaving Italy with a minority government that will struggle to vote policies through parliament without eventually returning to the polls.

[4/1/13]


UK Budget 2013: Sailing a steady course

In challenging economic times, the Chancellor needed to announce a confident, stable Budget based on sound, practical economic decisions that would send a message of confidence to businesses. So has he delivered on this?

[4/1/13]


Monetary policy: What more can central banks do to support growth?

In challenging economic times, the Chancellor needed to announce a confident, stable Budget based on sound, practical economic decisions that would send a message of confidence to businesses. So has he delivered on this?

[4/1/13]


Global economy watch - March 2013

This edition focuses on Africa taking over the “7% growth club”.

[3/4/13]


The great economic rebalancing fromWest to East is set to continue

Dennis Nally: CEOs worried but opportunities are out there. Listen to our full podcast interview of PwC International's Chairman.

[2/27/13]


The impact of recent exchange rate movements on UK businesses

A weaker exchange rate feeds through to businesses via higher import costs, particularly of raw materials. But one of the key findings of our latest global CEO Survey was that UK CEOs are the least worried about volatile exchange rates.

[2/27/13]


Focus on Africa: Taking over the 7% club

Our latest CEO Survey results show that business leaders in Africa are very optimistic about the future. In fact, more than 90% of CEOs there are confident or very confident about their revenue growth prospects for the next 12 months. This is the second highest figure recorded after Latin America. So is this optimism really justified?

[2/27/13]


Global economy watch - February 2013

2013 began with last minute policy action by US policymakers to avert the fiscal cliff. But even with the latest temporary debt ceiling suspension we expect continued fiscal skirmishes in the months to come. Across the pond, the German economy contracted in the last quarter of 2012. Our heat map in the report shows the outlook of Germany's key export markets which are important to its growth. Finally, we have been closely following the Cyprus debt crisis. This is expected to be a key test for the Eurozone's commitment to break the vicious link between the banks and the sovereign.

[2/1/13]


Affluent consumers

There is a rise in young affluent consumers in the rising cities of the world, and urbanisation will remain the driving force in emerging markets. We look at how this will impact the global business environment.

[12/21/12]


Emerging markets and advanced economies

Emerging markets bigger than ever: 2013 will be the first time since reliable records began when what are today the emerging and developing economies will be bigger than the advanced economies. We look at what this means for business.

[12/21/12]


Major economic challenges

We look at the biggest challenges facing the world's economic stability, including economic reform in the Eurozone and bringing down the long term deficit in the US.

[12/21/12]


Commodity prices

Unstable and erratic commodity prices (which are closely linked to their growth rates) are set to continue for 2013 and indeed beyond. It will be people in emerging economies that will be most vulnerable to commodity price swings.

[12/21/12]