Following a downturn in print advertising in 2011 and ongoing decreases in print circulation spending, we project that consumer magazine spending will begin growing again in 2012, and will average 1.3 percent growth on a compound annual basis to reach $80.2 billion in 2016. The sector will see declining print unit circulation as well as loss in advertising share to the Internet and television over the next five years, and as a result, growth will not keep pace with nominal GDP, nor will it expand as fast as inflation. However, thanks to online access and the emergence of mobile access on tablets, the willingness to pay for mobile content will drive an emerging digital circulation spending market, and a growing digital readership will fuel digital advertising from a low base.
The digital component of consumer magazines will account for 10.4 percent of spending by 2016, up from 3.1 percent in 2011.
The consumer magazine publishing market consists of spending by advertisers in consumer print and online magazines, on magazine online Web sites, on magazine mobile Web sites, and in magazines distributed to tablets and other mobile devices. Consumer magazine publishing includes spending by readers to purchase magazines via subscriptions or at retail outlets as well as paid digital circulation principally through downloads to tablets and smartphones. Magazines published under contract—known as contract publishing, customer magazines, or custom publishing—also are included, under the print advertising component. Figures do not include the licensing of apparel, caps, mugs, or other merchandise, or other ancillary revenues. Trade magazines are covered in the “Business-to-Business” segment.
Forecasts for advertising and consumer/end-user spending in the filmed entertainment segment across 48 countries cover (where available):