2010 saw the global economy begin to recover from its steep decline in 2009 and these improved economic conditions have played a major role in the recovery of overall E&M spending which rose by 4.6 percent. Over the next five years we forecast that aggregate E&M global spending will rise to $1.9 trillion in 2015, a 5.7 percent compound annual advance driven by economic growth, but masking the accelerating shift of spending from traditional to digital platforms.

Visit this snapshot regularly for insights into the 13 segments and 48 countries covered by the Outlook. Our current focus is on the TV Advertising and Subscriptions segments, and the fast-growth market of Russia.

 

Segment focus: TV Subscriptions

  • Global spending on TV subscriptions will increase at a 7.6 percent compound annual rate to $235.8 billion in 2015.
  • Whilst global spending on pay-per-view services will see a slight decline to 2015 at a compound annual rate of -0.2 percent, video-on-demand will, in contrast, grow at 13.6 percent CAGR to $9.2 billion, almost doubling its 2010 value.
  • Regionally, the major growth in TV subscriptions spending to 2015 will be seen in Latin America and Asia Pacific, at 12.5 percent and 12.1 percent CAGR respectively, driven by continued expansion in the subscription household universe. The largest region in revenue terms, North America, is approaching saturation and will expand at 5.8 percent CAGR, and TV subscriptions in EMEA, experiencing competition from free DTT services, will grow at 7.8 percent CAGR.
  • Over-the-top services in North America and EMEA will generate $2.0 billion in 2015 from $244 million in 2010, a 51.6 percent compound annual increase.
  • Video-on-demand will pass pay-per-view in 2011 and reach $4.7 billion in 2015, a 9.8 percent compound annual increase from $2.9 billion in 2010.
  • Mobile TV will rise from $486.0 million in 2010 to $921.0 million in 2015, a 13.6 percent compound annual increase.
 
 
 
 

Segment focus: TV Advertising

  • Globally, total broadcast television advertising will rise to $221.9 billion in 2015 at a compound annual rate of 5.9 percent. Online television advertising will increase at 22.6 percent CAGR and mobile television advertising will rise at 33.0 percent CAGR, both from much smaller bases.
  • Latin America will be the fastest growing TV Advertising market over the next five years, with a compound annual increase of 9.6 percent through 2015. North America, still the largest market in revenue terms by 2015, will by contrast be the slowest growing region with a CAGR of 4.9percent. Asia Pacific, the second largest region, is also the second fastest growing at 8.3 percent CAGR, rising to 11.8 percent CAGR when the slow-growing Japanese market is excluded from this figure. EMEA will expand at 6.3 percent CAGR to 2015.
  • Over the next five years, double-digit compound annual growth rates will be witnessed in Russia, Turkey, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, The Philippines, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela.
  • We project that global mobile TV advertising will grow to $264 million by 2015, a 57.8 percent compound annual increase from only $27 million in 2010, driven by mobile TV rollouts, mobile TV app launches, and growing penetration of smart devices.
 
 
 
 

Country focus: Russia

  • By 2015, Russia will be the thirteenth largest entertainment and media market, with revenues of $35.7 billion. Growing at a compound annual growth rate of 11.7 percent, Russia will be the eighth fastest growing market globally.
  • Rapid growth in the Russian television advertising market to 2015—averaging 15.0 percent compounded annually—will see Russia overtake the UK and Germany in 2012 to become EMEA’s largest market, rising from $4.3 billion in 2010 to $8.7 billion in 2015. By 2015 Russia will be the fifth-largest TV advertising market in the world, behind only the US, Japan, China and Brazil.
  • Internet advertising: wired and mobile will the fastest growing Russian segment in the next five years, at 20.8 percent CAGR.
  • In filmed entertainment, Russia recorded a 28.7 percent increase in 2010, by far the largest gain among the top six countries, and will be the fastest-growing of the larger filmed entertainment markets in EMEA during the next five years, with a projected 13.4 percent compound annual increase. Box office jumped 49.5 percent, boosted by the construction of new multiplexes and growth in the popularity of 3-D films. With more theatres planned, we look for box office spending in Russia to grow by a cumulative 87.8 percent during the next five years as movies become available to more people.
  • Publishing segments are the slowest growing segments within the Russian market, but in spite of this, Russia’s compound annual growth of 5.8 percent for consumer magazine publishing will help CEE be the fastest growing EMEA area for consumer magazines to 2015.
 
 

Global trends

  • Advertising, the most cyclically sensitive of the three E&M spending streams, recorded the largest year-on-year swing, rebounding at 5.8 percent in 2010 from an 11 percent slump in 2009. Overall global advertising will increase at a 5.5 percent compound annual rate to $578 billion in 2015.
  • Consumer/end-user spending also improved, rising 2.2 percent in 2010 after a fall of 0.4 percent in 2009.
  • In contrast Internet access spending was barely affected by the economic cycle and is expected to rise to $408 billion in 2015, an 8.6 percent compound annual increase.
  • Currently digital accounts for 26 percent of all spending but by 2015 we expect digital’s share to rise to 33.9 percent.