Opportunities and challenges vary by market and industry segment
Hear from Marcel Fenez, Global leader, Entertainment and media, on the global growth picture for entertainment and media
Analysis of the consumer and advertising spend data in this year’s online Outlook 2013-2017, shows that the consumer demand for entertainment and media (E&M) experiences, fuelled largely by the adoption of broadband and connected devices, will continue to grow and we expect this growth to follow a similar trend to GDP development across the forecast period 2013-2017. However, given the shift towards digital media—typically lower priced than its physical counterpart—we anticipate spend to lag behind GDP growth.
The global E&M market will grow at a CAGR of 5.6% over the next five years, generating revenues in 2017 of US$2.2tn, up from US$1.6tn in 2012. Within this overall figure, all three sub-categories—advertising, consumer spend on content, and access—will continue to grow, but at varying rates.
This global growth figure masks the segment and geography stories that the Outlook's extensive datasets and analysis bring to life. Below are just a few snapshots of the tipping points the industry is currently undergoing by geography and spending category. Visit the Segment insights page for the segments story.
Global digital vs nondigital spend
Within the global E&M market, digital will be the main driver of growth in the next five years, with revenues increasing at a CAGR of 11.9%. By 2017, digital revenues (including consumer spending on digital content, digital advertising spending and spending on Internet access) will account for 47% of the total, up from 35% in 2012.
Consumer spend shifts from content to access: The rapid growth in spend on access means that there will be a shift in the share of overall global E&M spend from consumer spend on content (from 47% of the market in 2012 to 41% of the market in 2017) to consumer spend on access (from 24% of the market in 2012 to 30% of the market in 2017).
Total global consumer spending split by category 2012 & 2017 (%)
Fastest growing E&M markets: A core group of 8 markets - China, Brazil, India, Russia, Middle East and North Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, and Argentina – will see the most growth. These territories will account for 22% of total global E&M revenues in 2017, up from 12% in 2008, and their average CAGR will be more than double that of the global E&M sector as a whole.
Top 8 fastest growing territories (2013-17 CAGR %)
Mobile overtakes fixed Internet access spend: In 2014, mobile Internet revenues, at US$259bn will account for more than 50% of total Internet access spend, overtaking those from fixed-broadband. Mobile Internet spend is expected to exceed fixed spend in the US and South Korea in 2013 and the UK in 2015. In South Africa and Indonesia, mobile Internet spend is higher than fixed across the whole forecast period.
Global Internet access revenues split by fixed broadband and mobile Internet (US$mn) 2008-2017
Consumer spending shifts from physical to digital: Consumer spending on E&M content is continuing to shift away from physical purchases, which have traditionally represented the majority of the market. Indeed, in 2008 spending on physical constituted 88% of total spending, which has dropped to 73% today and will continue falling. By 2017, physical purchases will represent just 53% of spend.
Consumer spending on digital and nondigital 2012 vs 2017 (%)
To find out more about segment-specific growth stories, visit the segment insights pages.