2:00 PM Market outlook

The afternoon plenary session began with the Market Outlook Panel, moderated by Todd Stroup, Partner, PwC Atlanta. Mikael Selling from Opticom International Research in Sweden stressed the importance to producers of understanding their customer’s situation and strategic challenges and helping their customers to create competitive advantages. However, he implored producers to change the model so that instead of giving away the value for free, they are compensated for developed services such as logistics solutions, product consulting and printing techniques. Russ Taylor from International Wood Markets Group in Canada walked delegates through the predicament faced by the Global lumber sector. He discussed the impact of the decimated US housing market, the Russian log export tax, excess global lumber capacity, the beginning of the end of the BC Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and how all these issues combined continues to support the need for low cost producers. Tom Wright from Hawkins Wright in the U.K. explained the trends and forecasts for the pulp and paper sector. He analyzed capacity and demand for the various consuming and producing regions of the world, considering prices, recessions, fibre constraints and production costs. Pulp and paper producers’ winning strategy, while the paper market is restructuring and the pulp market is working on substituting short fibre (hardwood and eucalyptus) for long fibre (softwood) is minimized, is a survival strategy. Ken Shields, Chairman of Raymond James in Canada, closed the panel by addressing the Top Ten issues facing the industry and his predictions for the surviving the current situation. He predicts a shift in production from North America to Europe and an increase in real lumber prices to go along with the shift.

Panelists