Banking in 2050: How big will the emerging markets get?
This report examines the possible changes in the scale of the banking sector between now and 2050, highlights the pace of change, and provides some measure of the size of the opportunities and challenges for banks.
For example, the new projections suggest that:
- Total domestic credit in China could overtake the UK and Germany by 2010, Japan by 2025, and the US before 2050
- India could rise from today’s relatively low levels to emerge as the third largest domestic banking market in the world by 2040 — and could ultimately grow faster than China
- Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey are also likely to see rapid expansion in their banking sectors, all having the potential to match major European economies such as France and Italy before 2050
John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers UK and co-author of the report with Nick Page, said: "The banking world in 2050 will look radically different from the one we see today, with the E7 economies becoming at least as important as the G7. This reflects both faster projected GDP growth in the E7 and the systematic tendency of banking sectors to grow faster than GDP as economies develop."
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